Single malt Scotch whisky exports have plunged sharply in the first half of 2025, down 12% compared to the same period in 2024 and 40% below the record peak of 2022, according to Martin Purvis from Commercial Spirits Intelligence.
With shipments now back at volumes last seen in 2016, the downturn marks one of the steepest reversals in recent years.
Industry observers point to a mix of factors. The post-pandemic boom, which drove exports to record highs in 2022, has faded as consumer demand softened globally. At the same time, supply-side pressures remain evident. Scotch whisky capacity has expanded dramatically since 2000: the number of distilling companies has grown from 31 in 1999 to 81 today, and the number of operational single malt distilleries from 93 to 154. While this expansion created unprecedented output potential, it has also led to oversupply just as global consumption weakens.
Trade headwinds further complicate the picture. Tariff regimes, shifting consumer preferences, and a slowdown in key markets such as the U.S. and Asia have all added pressure. Analysts suggest that the industry may now be entering a period of production cutbacks, with distilleries reassessing growth plans and capacity utilization.
