The Brewers Association (BA), the not-for-profit trade association of America’s small and independent brewers has described 2025 as another year of contraction for the U.S. craft beer sector, marked by falling volumes, more brewery closures than openings, and intensifying competition across beverage alcohol. Midyear BA data estimated craft beer volume down 5% year on year, a steeper decline than in 2024. Retail scan data from the third quarter indicated further weakening in the second half, suggesting full-year contraction slightly beyond midyear levels.
For the second consecutive year, closures outpaced openings. The BA tracked 268 new brewery openings against 434 closures during 2025. Despite the headline impact, closures still accounted for only about 4.4% of operating breweries, leaving a total of 9,778 small and independent breweries active nationwide. The industry continued to support more than 443,000 jobs and generated an estimated USD 72.5 billion in economic impact, underlining its ongoing relevance despite pressure on individual businesses.
According to Matt Gacioch, staff economist of the Brewers Association, changing consumer behaviour, retailer rationalisation, inflation- and tariff-driven cost increases, and heightened competition compounded challenges throughout the year. In response, many breweries adjusted portfolios and business models rather than pursuing growth at scale.
Consolidation evolved beyond pure asset ownership, with brand stories, collaborations, and acquisitions gaining importance. At the same time, breweries leaned more heavily into hospitality, expanding food offerings, beverage variety, and targeted programming to strengthen their role as local “third spaces.” Product development continued to shift toward non-alcoholic and low- to mid-strength beers below 4.0% ABV, as brewers sought to capture more drinking occasions without higher alcohol content.
Broader market data reinforced the BA’s assessment. Beer Institute shipment figures showed U.S. taxable removals down 5.0% year to date through October 2025, equivalent to more than 6.2 million barrels (approximately 7.3 million hl) less beer shipped compared with the same period in 2024. Distributor sentiment also remained weak, with craft beer posting particularly low readings, indicating cautious ordering and limited appetite for new placements.
Looking ahead to 2026, the BA sees cautious reasons for optimism. Potential interest rate declines, greater clarity on tariffs, and consumer intent to socialise more could offer marginal support. However, the association emphasises that recovery will depend on execution rather than a return to pre-pandemic growth assumptions, with profitability, efficiency, and strong on-premise performance becoming increasingly decisive.
