Global alcohol consumption is projected to increase moderately through the end of the decade, according to Vinetur, which compiled recent historical data, peer-reviewed forecasts, and scenario modeling aligned with definitions of the World Health Organization. The key metric used is, measured in liters of pure alcohol consumed annually per person aged 15 and older, including both recorded and unrecorded alcohol and adjusted for tourism.
According to Vinetur, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp but temporary contraction. Global alcohol per capita consumption (APC) fell from 5.8 liters in 2019 to 4.9 liters in 2020, a decline of 11.1% driven by lockdowns and the closure of on-premise venues. By 2023, most models assume consumption had returned to approximately 5.8 liters.
Under a baseline scenario outlined by Vinetur, global APC is forecast to reach around 6.7 liters by 2030. With the global population expected to grow to approximately 8.5 billion and the adult (15+) share increasing, total pure alcohol volume would rise from an estimated 35.1 billion liters in 2023 to about 43.6 billion liters in 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 24%.
In a higher-growth scenario described in the forecast, fueled by stronger economic expansion and limited regulatory intervention, total volume could reach nearly 49.4 billion liters by 2030, a rise of 41%.
Conversely, if aggressive and sustained public health policies are implemented, global volume could decline slightly to around 33.8 billion liters, equivalent to a decrease of 3.7%.
Vinetur highlights significant regional divergence. Europe remains the highest per-capita consuming region but continues on a downward trajectory, reflecting regulatory measures and changing social attitudes. In contrast, Asia—particularly South-East Asia and the Western Pacific—is experiencing upward pressure as rising incomes, urbanization, and improved retail access expand availability and marketing exposure. In the Americas, APC stood at 7.6 liters in 2019, approximately 1.3 times the global average.
Country-level projections cited in the analysis indicate that Russia and Germany are expected to remain among Europe’s highest per-capita consumers. China and India are forecast to continue expanding in total consumption, while the United States is projected to maintain high but relatively stable levels. Nigeria may see growth linked primarily to demographic expansion and urbanization.
Structural drivers include population aging, income growth, and urban concentration. Policy variables such as taxation, marketing restrictions, and enforcement will determine whether per-capita increases accelerate or moderate. Unrecorded alcohol, including home production and illicit sales, remains a significant factor in many markets and complicates measurement, particularly where stricter regulation may shift consumption into informal channels.
Overall, Vinetur’s forecast suggests that even modest increases in per-capita consumption translate into substantial volume growth due to demographic expansion. Without intensified public health intervention, global alcohol consumption is likely to continue its upward trajectory through 2030.
