U.S. beer production fell sharply again in the first half of 2026, extending a contraction that has now spread across both the mainstream and craft brewing sectors. According to newly released data from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB), breweries produced 74.58 million barrels (87.5 million hl) between January and June, down 5.6% from the same period last year.
Taxable removals, which measure beer leaving breweries for sale or consumption in the domestic market, fell at a similar rate. They declined 5.7% to 68.56 million barrels from 72.67 million barrels during the first six months of 2025.
The weakness persisted throughout the first half. First-quarter production dropped 6.5% to 34.38 million barrels, while second-quarter output declined 4.7% year-on-year to 40.20 million barrels. June alone was down 6.4% at 14.04 million barrels.
The figures continue the steep downturn already visible in 2025. U.S. beer production fell 5.2% to 174.9 million hl last year, representing the largest absolute production decline of any major beer-producing country worldwide (inside.beer, 21.7.2026).
The independent craft brewing sector performed somewhat better than the market as a whole, but remained under considerable pressure. The Brewers Association (BA) estimates that craft beer production declined 4% during the first six months of 2026. The estimate is based on responses from more than 600 breweries representing around 20% of total craft volume and adjusted using additional market data.
The latest decline follows a 5.1% contraction in U.S. craft beer production in 2025, compared with a 5.7% decline in the overall beer market. Craft consequently managed to increase its volume share slightly from 13.2% to 13.3% last year (inside.beer, 14.4.2026).
The number of operating breweries is also continuing to shrink. There were 9,344 breweries in June 2026, down 1.8% from 9,515 a year earlier. Regional breweries and microbreweries each declined by around 3%, taprooms by 2% and brewpubs by 1%.
The contraction marks a clear reversal after decades of expansion. Closures already outpaced openings for the second consecutive year in 2025, when the Brewers Association recorded 434 closures against only 268 new brewery openings (inside.beer, 15.12.2025).
Retail data show even greater pressure on packaged craft beer. NielsenIQ figures indicate that off-premise sales of BA-defined craft beer declined 5.2% in the first half of 2026. Under NielsenIQ's broader craft definition, sales fell 5.6%, while beer including non-alcoholic beer declined 4.0%.
There are nevertheless some signs of stabilization. Distributed draught beer gained 0.5 percentage points of channel share, while packaged craft lost 0.4 percentage points. Taprooms were the best-performing brewery type by volume, and 54% of breweries participating in the BA survey reported growth, compared with 43% reporting declining production.
Consumer engagement also remained relatively strong. A Brewers Association and Harris Poll survey of more than 2,000 adults found that 85% of craft beer drinkers consumed craft beer at least monthly, ten percentage points more than a year earlier. Average brewery visits increased from 5.1 to 5.5 per craft drinker annually.
One area moving clearly against the domestic trend is exports. Tax-free beer removals for export rose 14.8% to 1.25 million barrels during the first half of the year, while June exports surged 35.6% year-on-year.
Inventories meanwhile remained well below previous-year levels. U.S. breweries held 9.86 million barrels at the end of June, 10.6% less than the 11.04 million barrels reported twelve months earlier.
The latest figures suggest that the U.S. beer market has not yet reached a clear turning point. Overall production is falling at a mid-single-digit rate, craft beer remains in contraction and the number of breweries continues to decline. At the same time, craft is currently shrinking somewhat more slowly than the total beer market, draught sales are proving more resilient than packaged beer and exports are showing strong growth.
