Saigon Beer – Alcohol – Beverage Corporation (Sabeco) has recently traded around VND 50,000 per share, implying a market capitalization of roughly VND 64 trillion (about USD 2.4–2.5 billion). While this represents a short-term stabilization, the longer-term picture remains challenging. Since the late-2017 privatization, Sabeco’s valuation has fallen sharply, translating into a paper loss of around USD 3.7 billion for its main shareholder.
The controlling stake of about 53.6% is held by Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) through its subsidiary Vietnam Beverage. ThaiBev acquired this stake in December 2017, roughly one year after Sabeco’s IPO, paying close to VND 110 trillion (around USD 4.9–5.0 billion) at prices close to the historical peak. At current market levels, the same stake is valued at only around USD 1.3–1.4 billion. The difference reflects a decline in market capitalization rather than a realized loss, but it underscores how dramatically expectations for Vietnam’s largest brewer have shifted since the deal.
At the same time, the Vietnamese state remains a key factor in Sabeco’s ownership structure. Through the State Capital Investment Corporation (SCIC), it continues to hold around 36% of the company. While there have been repeated discussions in the past about divesting this remaining stake, no concrete timetable has been set. Given the significantly lower valuation, a sale currently appears unlikely, but the state holding nevertheless represents a structural overhang that remains relevant for both the share price and ThaiBev’s longer-term strategic options.
Despite the erosion in equity value, Sabeco continues to generate solid cash flows. Since the acquisition, dividends paid to ThaiBev’s ecosystem amount to roughly VND 15.5 trillion (about USD 590 million). A 30% cash dividend was distributed in June 2025, and a further 20% dividend for the 2025 financial year has been announced, with payment scheduled for February 2026. These payouts have helped cushion the investment, even if they only partly offset the decline in share value.
The operating environment for beer in Vietnam has become structurally more difficult. After years of rapid growth, demand has been dampened by Covid-19 disruptions and by stricter enforcement of drink-driving regulations since 2020. Additional pressure is expected from higher excise duties: under the amended Special Consumption Tax regime, beer tax rates are set to rise to 65% in 2026 and then increase step by step to 90% by 2031.
Financial performance reflects these headwinds. Profits weakened in 2023 and 2024, and while Sabeco reported around VND 3,454 billion (USD 130+ million) in profit for the first nine months of 2025, revenues continued to trend lower. Third-quarter earnings benefited mainly from cost reductions and other income rather than from volume growth.
From an ownership perspective, Sabeco’s shareholder base has also evolved. Following the December 2017 privatization, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi’s group reshaped governance and management. Heineken, which had been considered a potential bidder for Sabeco, saw its minority stake lose strategic relevance after Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) secured a controlling 53.59% interest (inside.beer, 18.12.2017). With any route to control closed, the stake became effectively redundant for Heineken, which subsequently reduced its holding (inside.beer, 15.11.2019). and focused on expanding its own operations in Vietnam, aiming for the beer market leadership in Vietnam (inside.beer, 15.8.2021).
