Despite a strong start in China, Carlsberg CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen is unable to offset the ongoing slump in Western Europe. Newly published Carlsberg figures show that the group's beer volumes In Western Europe dropped organically by 6.8% to 5.5 million hectoliters.
Aarup-Andersen, formerly with Goldman Sachs and leading Carlsberg since September 2023, is not only grappling with poor sales but also political tensions. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited debate over the status of Greenland, leading some Danish consumers to boycott American products such as Coca-Cola, for which Carlsberg is a key bottler in Denmark.
While tariffs and boycotts hit some soft drink segments, the domestic Danish cola Jolly Cola, produced by the independent Vestfyn Brewery, has benefited. However, Aarup-Andersen notes another painful loss: Carlsberg recently lost its licensing agreement for San Miguel in the UK to competitor AB InBev.
Although Carlsberg maintains its full-year forecast of 1–5% organic profit growth, the first quarter's global sales of DKK 20.12 billion (USD 3.07 billion) fell slightly short of analyst expectations. Organic volume declined by 2.3%, even though total volumes were up 14.5%, mainly due to the acquisition of Britvic. The U.S. accounts for only a minor part of Carlsberg’s business, but the group warns that recently imposed tariffs could raise costs for materials such as barley, aluminum, and glass.
The group's largest market, China, still offers a glimmer of hope, with a 2% increase in volumes driven by premium offerings in urban areas. But overall demand remains weak in the country’s western regions, and the beer market there shrank by 4% last year. Further low single-digit declines are expected in early 2025.
